CHESTERTONS MOROCCO RESEARCH

Marrakech property market

Liquidity paused, while premium demand and the new-build pipeline point forward | Q1 2026

Cover: Koutoubia, Marrakech by Federico Mata, CC BY 3.0; cropped and colour-graded.

Data through Q1 2026 | Published August 2026

PROPRIETARY MARKET ANALYSIS

Jawad El Hassani Sbai

CEO, Chestertons Morocco

Signed for publication | August 2026

Global vision. Local expertise.

 
Jawad's Marrakech readin

Sources: Bank Al-Maghrib / ANCFCC bulletin and detailed workbook; y/y calculations from index levels.

The city therefore looks stronger on price than on liquidity. That divergence can persist for a time in markets with heterogeneous prime, local and investment demand, but it is not proof that every neighbourhood or new-build segment held its value. The IPAI is a repeat-sales registry index, not a complete listing-price or new-development database.

Residential breakdown

Apartments fell 1.8% quarter-on-quarter but rose 1.1% year-on-year. Houses fell 3.4% in the quarter and 0.3% over the year. Villas were essentially flat in Q1 (+0.1%) and 2.1% above Q1 2025. Each residential type nevertheless recorded a transaction decline of roughly 52%-53%.

Prices held better than turnover

Figure 1. Marrakech Q1 2026 price and transaction changes

Source: Bank Al-Maghrib / ANCFCC Q1 2026; Chestertons Morocco Research, analysis by Jawad El Hassani Sbai.

Professional assets were the relative winner

Professional prices rose 1.3% even as transactions fell 49.7%. Retail units increased 0.7%, while offices slipped 0.4%. The price resilience is notable, but the weak transaction denominator means the signal should be treated as selective rather than broad-based.

The strongest annual readings sit in villas and land

Villas (+2.1% y/y) and urban land (+1.6% y/y) outperformed the all-property index. This supports a relative-resilience thesis, not an acceleration thesis: both categories remain below earlier cycle peaks, and the quarter's transaction fall shows that market depth weakened sharply.

Marrakech in long-run context

Figure 2. Marrakech price index levels since 2016

Source: detailed Bank Al-Maghrib / ANCFCC workbook; calculations by Jawad El Hassani Sbai for Chestertons Morocco Research. Base 100 = 2006.

The all-property index stands at 107.2, up 7.2% from 2006, 1.6% from Q1 2016 and 2.5% from Q1 2023. It is 3.0% below Q1 2021 and 10.3% below its Q4 2007 historical peak. The city's overall quarterly price volatility since 2006 is higher than the national index, so turning points require more than one observation.

The ten-year chart shows a gradual recovery from the 2021-2022 trough, led at different times by residential and land. The Q1 2026 decline interrupts that recovery but does not erase the positive year-on-year reading.

Tourism, investment demand and what the IPAI can prove

A genuine tourism tailwind

The Observatoire du Tourisme reported national arrivals up 7% in January-May 2026 and nights in classified accommodation up 9% in January-April, with foreign-currency receipts up 21%. This is supportive context for Marrakech's hospitality-linked economy, but the horizon extends beyond Q1 and the data do not establish a direct causal effect on property prices.

Financing remained available at the national level

Outstanding housing credit rose 2.9% year-on-year at end-March, while participatory housing finance continued to grow rapidly. These figures help explain why price support can coexist with weak turnover, but there is no city-level credit breakdown in the cited sources.

Media narrative versus primary data

Moroccan media broadly described Marrakech as a market with a sharp buyer pause and resistant prices. That framing matches the primary data. One repeated error deserves correction: -53.3% is the residential transaction change, while the city's global transaction change is -51.5%. The primary bulletin and workbook control throughout this report.

Chestertons Morocco field intelligence

A substantial off-plan residential pipeline

Off-plan villa and apartment supply is building across three principal corridors: Gueliz-Agdal, Route d'Amizmiz and Route de l'Ourika. This visible pipeline creates near-term competition between schemes, particularly where specifications and delivery propositions are similar. It should also generate higher reservation, completion and transaction figures in coming quarters as projects progress. Because the IPAI is a repeat-sales index, the operating momentum in first-sale new development may become visible in official data only gradually.

The masterplan pause creates a future supply gap

The hold affecting the city's urban masterplan is interrupting momentum for new schemes and small-scale urban developments. In the short term, buyers can choose from the existing off-plan pipeline; beyond it, fewer fresh approvals may create a gap in delivery. This sequencing matters: current supply can weigh on absorption before a later planning bottleneck restores scarcity and supports well-located completed stock.

Premium demand is broadening

We are seeing rising enquiry and an expanding project pipeline for branded residences aimed primarily at international buyers. Demand for ultra-high-end property is also strengthening, especially where privacy, hospitality-level service, architecture and management quality are credible. These segments are small relative to the whole city, but they can support land values, product standards and Marrakech's international positioning.

Diaspora demand paused without forcing prices lower

Moroccan diaspora demand has slowed amid international economic uncertainty and geopolitical conditions. So far, our field experience suggests that the slowdown has reduced urgency more than pricing: owners and developers have generally resisted broad discounts. A stabilisation in external conditions would therefore release deferred demand into a market where prime sellers have retained their expectations.

The riad cycle is returning

Interest in riads is rising again, supported by renewed international exposure through creators and influencers, the growth of digital nomadism and expectations surrounding Morocco's 2030 World Cup cycle. The strongest demand is selective: authentic architecture, legal clarity, access, renovation quality and a viable hospitality or private-use proposition remain decisive. This is a positive niche trend rather than a blanket uplift for all medina stock.

My Q2-Q4 2026 outlook

Base case: broader activity with selective price resilience

I expect transactions to rebound progressively as the off-plan pipeline in Gueliz-Agdal, Route d'Amizmiz and Route de l'Ourika converts into reservations and completions. Pricing should prove most resilient in branded residences, ultra-prime villas, strong land-backed schemes and investment-grade riads. Mainstream projects face greater competition; reputation, delivery certainty and specification will decide absorption.

Upside signals

Improving annual transaction growth, off-plan conversion without heavy incentives, more branded-residence launches and sustained ultra-prime and international enquiry would confirm the upside case. Renewed diaspora activity and tourism momentum would deepen the recovery.

Downside signals

Risks are delivery delays, repetitive off-plan product, a prolonged planning standstill and weaker diaspora purchasing power. Material incentives alongside negative villa or land price growth would weaken the current resilience case.

Methodology and sources

Marrakech indices use the Bank Al-Maghrib / ANCFCC repeat-sales methodology, base 100 in 2006. Only properties with at least two observed transactions enter the index; minimum transaction thresholds apply. Data are cut 35 days after quarter-end and can be revised. The IPAI does not measure asking prices, rents, new-build inventory or total investment returns. Field intelligence reflects qualitative observations from Chestertons Morocco's day-to-day mandates, negotiations and client interactions; it is directional, not a statistically representative survey. The interpretation, calculations and forward-looking judgements are my proprietary analysis for Chestertons Morocco.

Primary IPAI Q1 2026 bulletin - https://www.ancfcc.gov.ma/media/ipai/ipai-t1-2026-fr.pdf

Detailed Q1 2026 IPAI workbook (client-supplied file; source of long-run and y/y calculations)

Observatoire du Tourisme - https://observatoiredutourisme.ma/ (contextual national tourism indicators)

DEPF Note No. 351 - https://www.finances.gov.ma/Publication/depf/2026/nc_351.pdf (Q1 real-estate credit and construction)

Direct housing-aid update - https://maroc.ma/fr/actualites/aide-directe-au-logement-plus-de-101000-beneficiaires-au-7-mai-courant

TelQuel Q1 2026 IPAI coverage - https://telquel.ma/instant-t/2026/06/22/immobilier-lindice-des-prix-recule-de-04-au-t1-2026_1995264/

Bladi - Marrakech buyer slowdown - https://www.bladi.net/marrakech-acheteurs-disparaissent-marche-immobilier,122058.html

Chestertons Morocco field intelligence (day-to-day operations, mandates and client interactions; qualitative evidence)

Marrakech photograph - Federico Mata, CC BY 3.0 - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Koutoubia,_Marrakech_-_panoramio.jpg (cropped and colour-graded)